Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NORF -175 HOW +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +6 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -2.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -3.1 (-9.1) | 142.3 (+11.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -3.6 (-9.6) | 142.1 (+11.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -3.1 (-9.1) | 143.2 (+10.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -3.0 (-9.0) | 142.3 (+11.7) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOW 84 – 76 NORF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOW 88 – 60 NORF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NORF 81 – 69 HOW |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NORF 92 – 75 HOW |
| Mar 8, 2024 | NORF 77 – 58 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 15-0 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#236) | -6.3 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#185) | -1.05 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#200) | -1.18 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#151) | 0.465 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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