Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -188 HOW +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +19 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -4.6 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -3.7 (+15.3) | 144.8 (-9.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -4.1 (+14.9) | 143.5 (-8.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -3.9 (+15.1) | 146.7 (-11.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -3.8 (+15.2) | 147.2 (-12.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOW 84 – 76 NORF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOW 88 – 60 NORF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NORF 81 – 69 HOW |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NORF 92 – 75 HOW |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOW 80 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 15-0 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#253) | -5.9 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#189) | -1.08 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#210) | -1.20 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#178) | 0.462 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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