Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | NORF +215 HOW -265 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +8 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -5.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -3.9 (-4.1) | 142.7 (+17.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -2.4 (-5.6) | 141.0 (+19.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -2.9 (-5.1) | 141.2 (+18.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -3.7 (-4.3) | 144.7 (+15.3) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOW 88 – 60 NORF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NORF 81 – 69 HOW |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NORF 92 – 75 HOW |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOW 80 – 74 NORF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | NORF 77 – 58 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 11-3 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#311) | -2.0 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#323) | -0.82 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#326) | -1.03 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#286) | 0.489 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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