Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -325 NORF +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +28 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -5.5 (+22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -3.8 (+24.2) | 139.0 (+9.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -4.7 (+23.3) | 139.4 (+8.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -5.1 (+22.9) | 140.5 (+7.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -4.8 (+23.2) | 140.5 (+7.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOW 84 – 76 NORF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NORF 81 – 69 HOW |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NORF 92 – 75 HOW |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOW 80 – 74 NORF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | NORF 77 – 58 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#268) | -9.1 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#269) | -1.94 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#259) | -2.62 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#286) | 0.399 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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