Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | NORF -900 HOW +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +17 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -11.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -9.3 (+7.7) | 147.4 (+19.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -11.3 (+5.7) | 153.4 (+13.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -11.2 (+5.8) | 151.8 (+15.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -12.2 (+4.8) | 149.2 (+17.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOW 84 – 76 NORF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOW 88 – 60 NORF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NORF 81 – 69 HOW |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOW 80 – 74 NORF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | NORF 77 – 58 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Home | 11-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#153) | -7.4 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#163) | -1.06 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#165) | -1.51 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#165) | 0.455 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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