Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | HOW +190 NORF -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +12 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -4.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -4.6 (-7.4) | 153.3 (-3.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -4.2 (-7.8) | 150.5 (-0.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -4.2 (-7.8) | 151.9 (-1.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -4.3 (-7.7) | 153.6 (-3.6) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOW 84 – 76 NORF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOW 88 – 60 NORF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NORF 92 – 75 HOW |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOW 80 – 74 NORF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | NORF 77 – 58 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#304) | -0.5 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#306) | 0.02 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#312) | -0.14 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#266) | 0.536 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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