Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +40 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -18.1 (+21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -13.7 (+26.3) | 146.4 (+25.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -12.7 (+27.3) | 149.5 (+22.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -15.5 (+24.5) | 148.1 (+23.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -15.8 (+24.2) | 147.2 (+24.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALA 90 – 83 LSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ALA 80 – 73 LSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALA 109 – 92 LSU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ALA 109 – 88 LSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ALA 79 – 69 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 2-16 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-8 |
| Away | 9-3 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#5) | 4.0 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.87 (#3) | 1.49 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.65 (#4) | 1.56 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.683 (#2) | 0.561 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 45.6 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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