Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Over |
| Money | LSU +260 ALA -325 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +7 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -5.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -3.8 (-3.2) | 177.1 (-4.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -4.1 (-2.9) | 168.9 (+4.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -4.1 (-2.9) | 169.9 (+3.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -6.1 (-0.9) | 171.4 (+1.6) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2025 | ALA 80 – 73 LSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALA 109 – 92 LSU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ALA 109 – 88 LSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ALA 79 – 69 LSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ALA 106 – 66 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-8 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 91.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 82.7 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#50) | 19.4 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#81) | 3.28 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#70) | 4.15 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#114) | 0.643 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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