Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -1000 LSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +21 | 197 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -17.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (+32.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -14.9 (+6.1) | 159.6 (+37.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -15.5 (+5.5) | 160.8 (+36.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -12.6 (+8.4) | 160.2 (+36.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -14.0 (+7.0) | 158.9 (+38.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALA 90 – 83 LSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ALA 80 – 73 LSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALA 109 – 92 LSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ALA 79 – 69 LSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ALA 106 – 66 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 20.0 (#5) | 6.6 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#26) | 1.12 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#21) | 1.72 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#17) | 0.531 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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