Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | LSU +250 ALA -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +17 | 201 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -9.9 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.1 (+31.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -7.0 (-10.0) | 166.0 (+35.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -8.3 (-8.7) | 174.8 (+26.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -7.2 (-9.8) | 169.6 (+31.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -7.5 (-9.5) | 170.8 (+30.2) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALA 90 – 83 LSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ALA 80 – 73 LSU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ALA 109 – 88 LSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ALA 79 – 69 LSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ALA 106 – 66 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 90.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#84) | 20.3 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#94) | 2.50 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#82) | 3.20 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#116) | 0.628 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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