Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | LSU +500 ALA -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +10 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -14.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -12.7 (+2.7) | 146.9 (+1.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -10.6 (+0.6) | 147.3 (+0.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -12.8 (+2.8) | 146.0 (+2.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -14.3 (+4.3) | 146.3 (+1.7) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALA 90 – 83 LSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ALA 80 – 73 LSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALA 109 – 92 LSU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ALA 109 – 88 LSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ALA 106 – 66 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-8 | 15-0 |
| Away | 0-9 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#132) | 20.2 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#98) | 3.51 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#114) | 4.12 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#126) | 0.671 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 45.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 41.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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