Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +18 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | CLT -18.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -14.8 (+3.2) | 134.9 (-8.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -13.9 (+4.1) | 135.0 (-9.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -14.2 (+3.8) | 137.6 (-11.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -14.2 (+3.8) | 137.8 (-11.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UTSA 88 – 79 CLT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CLT 74 – 58 UTSA |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UTSA 83 – 80 CLT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | CLT 79 – 70 UTSA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | CLT 66 – 58 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 4-16 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-10 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#88) | -9.1 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#101) | -1.17 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#102) | -1.35 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#94) | 0.427 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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