Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | CLT -145 UTSA +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +3 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -0.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -0.1 (-3.1) | 149.2 (+13.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -1.0 (-4.0) | 149.5 (+13.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -0.2 (-3.2) | 148.1 (+14.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -0.1 (-3.1) | 149.2 (+13.8) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UTSA 88 – 79 CLT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CLT 74 – 58 UTSA |
| Feb 16, 2024 | CLT 79 – 70 UTSA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | CLT 66 – 58 UTSA |
| Mar 3, 2023 | UTSA 78 – 73 CLT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 1-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 77.5 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#251) | -1.9 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#267) | -0.80 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#263) | -0.78 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#294) | 0.489 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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