Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA +210 CLT -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | CLT -8.9 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -9.2 (+14.2) | 135.6 (+15.4) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -7.7 (+12.7) | 137.4 (+13.6) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -7.6 (+12.6) | 136.8 (+14.2) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -8.2 (+13.2) | 136.1 (+14.9) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UTSA 88 – 79 CLT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CLT 74 – 58 UTSA |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UTSA 83 – 80 CLT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | CLT 79 – 70 UTSA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | CLT 66 – 58 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-10 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 62.6 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#308) | 4.1 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#283) | 0.74 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#292) | 0.93 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#303) | 0.519 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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