Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +220 CLT -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +16 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | CLT -8.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -8.0 (-8.0) | 142.6 (-10.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -7.1 (-8.9) | 143.1 (-11.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -7.1 (-8.9) | 141.4 (-9.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -7.7 (-8.3) | 142.8 (-10.8) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UTSA 88 – 79 CLT |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UTSA 83 – 80 CLT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | CLT 79 – 70 UTSA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | CLT 66 – 58 UTSA |
| Mar 3, 2023 | UTSA 78 – 73 CLT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 9-9 |
| Home | 2-12 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.9 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -12.7 (#339) | -0.4 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#270) | -0.67 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#275) | -0.65 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#220) | 0.471 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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