Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +163 CLT -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +8 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | CLT -5.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -5.9 (-2.1) | 145.8 (-21.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -6.2 (-1.8) | 146.8 (-22.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -5.4 (-2.6) | 146.6 (-22.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -5.3 (-2.7) | 146.6 (-22.6) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UTSA 88 – 79 CLT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CLT 74 – 58 UTSA |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UTSA 83 – 80 CLT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | CLT 79 – 70 UTSA |
| Mar 3, 2023 | UTSA 78 – 73 CLT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#273) | 4.3 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#281) | 0.60 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#276) | 0.73 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#293) | 0.546 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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