Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | CLT -1000 UTSA +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | CLT -15.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -12.7 (-3.7) | 147.9 (+1.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -13.5 (-4.5) | 145.9 (+3.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -12.9 (-3.9) | 148.2 (+0.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -13.8 (-4.8) | 146.7 (+2.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UTSA 88 – 79 CLT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CLT 74 – 58 UTSA |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UTSA 83 – 80 CLT |
| Jan 14, 2024 | CLT 66 – 58 UTSA |
| Mar 3, 2023 | UTSA 78 – 73 CLT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#100) | -7.1 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#94) | -1.35 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#102) | -1.74 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#62) | 0.434 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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