Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +16 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -6.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -6.0 (+10.0) | 142.1 (-10.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -7.4 (+8.6) | 140.6 (-8.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -5.9 (+10.1) | 141.1 (-9.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -6.0 (+10.0) | 143.2 (-11.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | BAY 94 – 79 OKST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BAY 71 – 61 OKST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | BAY 75 – 70 OKST |
| Feb 28, 2023 | BAY 74 – 68 OKST |
| Feb 22, 2022 | BAY 66 – 64 OKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#18) | 10.8 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#23) | 1.19 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#22) | 1.95 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#31) | 0.567 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 42.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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