Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.0 Push |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | OKST +178 BAY -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +5 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -8.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -5.7 (+0.7) | 147.4 (-2.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -5.4 (+0.4) | 144.3 (+0.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -5.3 (+0.3) | 146.3 (-1.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -6.6 (+1.6) | 147.4 (-2.4) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | BAY 94 – 79 OKST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BAY 71 – 61 OKST |
| Feb 28, 2023 | BAY 74 – 68 OKST |
| Jan 14, 2023 | BAY 74 – 58 OKST |
| Feb 22, 2022 | BAY 66 – 64 OKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-9 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#102) | 17.1 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#204) | 2.18 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#178) | 2.64 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#251) | 0.581 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 46.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 61.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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