Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | OKST +105 BAY -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +15 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | OKST -1.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -3.0 (-18.0) | 163.5 (+9.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -0.6 (-15.6) | 164.4 (+8.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -3.7 (-18.7) | 163.1 (+9.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -2.7 (-17.7) | 161.7 (+11.3) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2025 | BAY 71 – 61 OKST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | BAY 75 – 70 OKST |
| Feb 28, 2023 | BAY 74 – 68 OKST |
| Jan 14, 2023 | BAY 74 – 58 OKST |
| Feb 22, 2022 | BAY 66 – 64 OKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#55) | 12.7 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#26) | 1.63 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#30) | 2.42 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#33) | 0.533 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 40.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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