Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +4 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -7.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -5.7 (-1.7) | 127.4 (+0.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -3.9 (+0.1) | 125.1 (+2.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -6.1 (-2.1) | 129.4 (-1.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -5.6 (-1.6) | 128.4 (-0.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UNT 74 – 70 FAU |
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNT 73 – 72 FAU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UNT 71 – 61 FAU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UNT 77 – 64 FAU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | FAU 77 – 71 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 31-7 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 16-4 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 11-3 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 56.3 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#26) | 8.0 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#12) | 2.13 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#21) | 2.45 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#8) | 0.610 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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