Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -125 FAU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -2.1 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -1.3 (+5.3) | 136.3 (+7.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -0.9 (+4.9) | 135.8 (+8.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -1.4 (+5.4) | 134.8 (+9.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -1.5 (+5.5) | 133.9 (+10.1) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNT 73 – 72 FAU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UNT 71 – 61 FAU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UNT 77 – 64 FAU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | FAU 77 – 71 UNT |
| Mar 7, 2024 | FAU 80 – 76 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#147) | 3.3 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#134) | 0.36 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#136) | 0.61 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#133) | 0.531 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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