Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -148 FAU +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -0.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -0.3 (+0.7) | 139.7 (+5.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -1.5 (-0.5) | 139.4 (+5.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -0.4 (+0.6) | 138.0 (+7.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -0.7 (+0.3) | 139.7 (+5.3) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UNT 74 – 70 FAU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UNT 71 – 61 FAU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UNT 77 – 64 FAU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | FAU 77 – 71 UNT |
| Mar 7, 2024 | FAU 80 – 76 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#151) | 4.0 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#154) | 0.36 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#161) | 0.73 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#177) | 0.535 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.