Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -425 FAU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -9.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -10.6 (+2.4) | 140.2 (+0.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -9.5 (+3.5) | 138.2 (+2.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -8.8 (+4.2) | 139.1 (+1.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -9.2 (+3.8) | 140.4 (+0.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UNT 74 – 70 FAU |
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNT 73 – 72 FAU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UNT 71 – 61 FAU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | FAU 77 – 71 UNT |
| Mar 7, 2024 | FAU 80 – 76 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#65) | 3.0 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#52) | 0.44 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#60) | 0.72 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#26) | 0.549 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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