Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | FAU -120 UNT +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +10 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -1.1 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -0.8 (-9.2) | 136.6 (-4.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -0.3 (-9.7) | 136.6 (-4.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -0.0 (-10.0) | 137.3 (-5.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -0.3 (-9.7) | 135.7 (-3.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UNT 74 – 70 FAU |
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNT 73 – 72 FAU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UNT 77 – 64 FAU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | FAU 77 – 71 UNT |
| Mar 7, 2024 | FAU 80 – 76 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-5 | 17-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 60.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#108) | 8.0 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#125) | 1.62 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#116) | 1.93 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#104) | 0.596 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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