Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -7.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -5.2 (-3.2) | 137.3 (-5.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -4.9 (-2.9) | 137.7 (-5.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -5.6 (-3.6) | 137.2 (-5.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -5.2 (-3.2) | 137.1 (-5.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 DAV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 DAV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GMU 69 – 57 DAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | GMU 57 – 55 DAV |
| Mar 3, 2022 | DAV 73 – 62 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#119) | 0.4 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#135) | 0.18 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#130) | 0.49 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#89) | 0.535 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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