Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -270 DAV +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +12 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -7.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -5.4 (+6.6) | 137.3 (-11.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -6.4 (+5.6) | 138.1 (-12.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -5.6 (+6.4) | 136.8 (-10.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -5.2 (+6.8) | 137.3 (-11.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 DAV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 DAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | GMU 57 – 55 DAV |
| Jan 14, 2023 | GMU 67 – 65 DAV |
| Mar 3, 2022 | DAV 73 – 62 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 18-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#77) | 3.8 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#144) | 0.96 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#91) | 1.50 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#152) | 0.528 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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