Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -298 DAV +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +8 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -8.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -8.5 (-0.5) | 134.5 (-22.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -9.6 (-1.6) | 134.4 (-22.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -7.8 (+0.2) | 135.3 (-23.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -7.6 (+0.4) | 135.7 (-23.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 DAV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GMU 69 – 57 DAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | GMU 57 – 55 DAV |
| Jan 14, 2023 | GMU 67 – 65 DAV |
| Mar 3, 2022 | DAV 73 – 62 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 17-3 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#87) | 2.1 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#43) | 0.62 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#52) | 0.69 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#33) | 0.537 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 36.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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