Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | DAV -125 GMU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +2 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -1.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -1.5 (-3.5) | 136.3 (-24.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -0.7 (-2.7) | 134.9 (-22.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -2.1 (-4.1) | 135.9 (-23.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -1.2 (-3.2) | 137.3 (-25.3) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 DAV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 DAV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GMU 69 – 57 DAV |
| Jan 14, 2023 | GMU 67 – 65 DAV |
| Mar 3, 2022 | DAV 73 – 62 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#119) | 5.3 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#116) | 1.03 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#110) | 1.30 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#103) | 0.561 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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