Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | DAV +105 GMU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +4 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -2.1 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.1 (-1.9) | 134.0 (-10.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -2.7 (-1.3) | 136.7 (-12.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -2.3 (-1.7) | 136.7 (-12.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.0 (-1.0) | 133.2 (-9.2) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 DAV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GMU 69 – 57 DAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | GMU 57 – 55 DAV |
| Jan 14, 2023 | GMU 67 – 65 DAV |
| Mar 3, 2022 | DAV 73 – 62 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 18-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#124) | 7.7 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#127) | 1.53 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#117) | 2.72 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#131) | 0.583 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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