Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -7.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -9.0 (+2.0) | 140.0 (-5.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -8.1 (+2.9) | 138.4 (-3.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -8.8 (+2.2) | 140.5 (-5.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -8.7 (+2.3) | 140.7 (-5.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 DAV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 DAV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GMU 69 – 57 DAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | GMU 57 – 55 DAV |
| Jan 14, 2023 | GMU 67 – 65 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#53) | 4.6 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#29) | 0.42 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#38) | 0.58 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#24) | 0.518 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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