Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -10.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -10.0 (+1.0) | 132.0 (-7.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -10.3 (+1.3) | 135.6 (-10.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -10.3 (+1.3) | 135.0 (-10.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -11.4 (+2.4) | 133.3 (-8.3) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | UVA 61 – 58 FSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVA 60 – 57 FSU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UVA 80 – 76 FSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | UVA 62 – 57 FSU |
| Feb 26, 2022 | FSU 64 – 63 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 5-11 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 60.5 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#219) | 12.3 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#251) | 2.68 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#239) | 3.54 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#236) | 0.613 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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