Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | FSU +295 UVA -375 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +3 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -9.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-40.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -8.0 (+5.0) | 150.7 (-31.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -6.9 (+3.9) | 151.7 (-32.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.8 (+3.8) | 149.8 (-30.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -6.0 (+3.0) | 150.7 (-31.7) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVA 60 – 57 FSU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UVA 80 – 76 FSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | UVA 67 – 58 FSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | UVA 62 – 57 FSU |
| Feb 26, 2022 | FSU 64 – 63 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 30-6 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#93) | 18.0 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#90) | 3.30 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#97) | 4.19 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#118) | 0.621 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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