Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -200 FSU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +3 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -1.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -2.0 (+1.0) | 135.8 (-18.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -2.8 (+0.2) | 135.3 (-18.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -2.1 (+0.9) | 135.6 (-18.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -2.2 (+0.8) | 137.7 (-20.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | UVA 61 – 58 FSU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UVA 80 – 76 FSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | UVA 67 – 58 FSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | UVA 62 – 57 FSU |
| Feb 26, 2022 | FSU 64 – 63 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#103) | 6.4 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#96) | 0.87 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#86) | 1.11 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#112) | 0.525 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.