Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -5000 FSU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +5 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -28.3 (-23.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -20.2 (-15.2) | 136.7 (-17.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -18.3 (-13.3) | 135.8 (-16.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -18.7 (-13.7) | 140.3 (-21.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -22.9 (-17.9) | 138.8 (-19.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | UVA 61 – 58 FSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVA 60 – 57 FSU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UVA 80 – 76 FSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | UVA 67 – 58 FSU |
| Feb 26, 2022 | FSU 64 – 63 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-11 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#14) | -7.0 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.02 (#3) | -2.47 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.16 (#3) | -2.57 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.672 (#10) | 0.412 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 45.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 38.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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