Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | FSU +110 UVA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -0.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (+31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -0.4 (-4.4) | 133.0 (+23.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -0.6 (-3.4) | 132.7 (+23.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -0.1 (-4.1) | 131.7 (+24.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -1.3 (-5.3) | 131.2 (+24.8) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | UVA 61 – 58 FSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVA 60 – 57 FSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | UVA 67 – 58 FSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | UVA 62 – 57 FSU |
| Feb 26, 2022 | FSU 64 – 63 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 59.8 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#80) | 10.0 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#73) | 2.21 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#77) | 2.25 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#75) | 0.606 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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