Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -450 FSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -5.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -5.5 (-6.5) | 125.6 (+1.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -5.6 (-6.6) | 124.8 (+2.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -4.5 (-5.5) | 129.8 (-2.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -5.7 (-6.7) | 130.1 (-3.1) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | UVA 61 – 58 FSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVA 60 – 57 FSU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UVA 80 – 76 FSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | UVA 67 – 58 FSU |
| Dec 3, 2022 | UVA 62 – 57 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#78) | 5.0 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#71) | 0.95 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#80) | 0.81 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#88) | 0.524 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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