Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -5.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -5.4 (+0.6) | 149.9 (-9.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -4.2 (+1.8) | 148.0 (-8.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -5.2 (+0.8) | 149.0 (-9.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -5.0 (+1.0) | 150.3 (-10.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PROV 79 – 76 CREI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | PROV 93 – 88 CREI |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CREI 80 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CREI 84 – 64 PROV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PROV 78 – 73 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#20) | 11.1 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#68) | 2.58 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#65) | 3.36 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#60) | 0.597 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.0% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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