Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA -600 LIU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +19 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -15.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -12.1 (+6.9) | 152.3 (+2.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -10.3 (+8.7) | 155.0 (-0.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -12.3 (+6.7) | 153.4 (+1.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -11.7 (+7.3) | 153.1 (+1.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | LIU 91 – 89 SFPA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | LIU 67 – 63 SFPA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SFPA 71 – 68 LIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SFPA 74 – 64 LIU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LIU 64 – 51 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 3-26 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 1-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 2-10 |
| Away | 3-13 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#336) | -21.1 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#316) | -4.32 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#329) | -5.87 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#302) | 0.362 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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