Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 119.5 Under |
| Money | CSUB +110 UCSD -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +4 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | CSUB -3.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -2.0 (+2.0) | 126.0 (-18.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -1.0 (+3.0) | 123.4 (-15.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -0.8 (+3.2) | 124.5 (-16.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -1.7 (+2.3) | 125.7 (-17.7) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSD 84 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UCSD 83 – 62 CSUB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCSD 73 – 54 CSUB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCSD 81 – 60 CSUB |
| Mar 1, 2024 | CSUB 70 – 57 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-8 | 4-10 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#293) | -6.5 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#314) | -0.86 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#303) | -1.38 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#327) | 0.477 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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