Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | ASU -8.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -7.3 (+2.3) | 131.7 (+11.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -8.3 (+3.3) | 132.8 (+10.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -7.8 (+2.8) | 134.2 (+8.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -8.4 (+3.4) | 132.6 (+10.4) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | ORST 78 – 75 ASU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ASU 79 – 61 ORST |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ORST 84 – 71 ASU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ASU 63 – 57 ORST |
| Feb 3, 2023 | ASU 68 – 57 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.5 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 68.0 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#227) | 9.5 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#207) | 2.00 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#233) | 2.49 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#241) | 0.592 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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