Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | ASU -1000 ORST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +11 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -13.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -10.4 (+0.6) | 131.3 (-6.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -12.2 (-1.2) | 129.8 (-4.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -10.0 (+1.0) | 131.4 (-6.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -10.9 (+0.1) | 130.3 (-5.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | ORST 78 – 75 ASU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ASU 79 – 61 ORST |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ORST 84 – 71 ASU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ASU 63 – 57 ORST |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ASU 74 – 69 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 60.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#67) | -1.5 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#64) | -0.40 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#69) | -0.55 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#61) | 0.458 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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