Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ASU -300 ORST +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -6.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -5.2 (+12.8) | 137.1 (+2.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -6.8 (+11.2) | 141.4 (-1.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -5.2 (+12.8) | 140.5 (-0.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -5.5 (+12.5) | 137.6 (+2.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | ORST 78 – 75 ASU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ORST 84 – 71 ASU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ASU 63 – 57 ORST |
| Feb 3, 2023 | ASU 68 – 57 ORST |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ASU 74 – 69 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#124) | 0.0 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#109) | 0.30 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#115) | 0.36 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#112) | 0.493 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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