Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ORST +115 ASU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +13 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -0.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -0.2 (+12.8) | 139.6 (+15.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -0.9 (+13.9) | 142.3 (+12.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -0.0 (+13.0) | 142.8 (+12.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -0.6 (+13.6) | 140.2 (+14.8) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | ORST 78 – 75 ASU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ASU 79 – 61 ORST |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ASU 63 – 57 ORST |
| Feb 3, 2023 | ASU 68 – 57 ORST |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ASU 74 – 69 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#164) | 4.1 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#137) | 1.19 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#143) | 1.42 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#158) | 0.563 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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