Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | ASU -650 ORST +460 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +6 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -10.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -9.3 (-3.3) | 129.9 (-9.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -9.7 (-3.7) | 129.6 (-9.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -8.3 (-2.3) | 130.6 (-10.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -8.9 (-2.9) | 131.0 (-11.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | ORST 78 – 75 ASU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ASU 79 – 61 ORST |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ORST 84 – 71 ASU |
| Feb 3, 2023 | ASU 68 – 57 ORST |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ASU 74 – 69 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 60.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#67) | -2.2 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#64) | -0.54 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#65) | -0.74 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#70) | 0.445 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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