Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT -225 STBK +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +2 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -7.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -3.7 (-1.7) | 136.0 (-16.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -2.4 (-0.4) | 136.2 (-16.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -3.8 (-1.8) | 136.7 (-16.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -4.0 (-2.0) | 137.6 (-17.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | STBK 81 – 80 NCAT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCAT 73 – 72 STBK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | STBK 89 – 74 NCAT |
| Feb 22, 2024 | STBK 80 – 64 NCAT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | STBK 76 – 61 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#267) | -9.2 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#266) | -1.05 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#265) | -1.55 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#242) | 0.444 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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