Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -18.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +20 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -20.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -15.9 (+4.1) | 131.8 (-15.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -15.4 (+4.6) | 129.7 (-13.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -14.7 (+5.3) | 134.1 (-18.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -16.2 (+3.8) | 134.4 (-18.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2026 | MONM 72 – 71 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MONM 62 – 48 TOW |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TOW 80 – 54 MONM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | TOW 73 – 67 MONM |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TOW 80 – 61 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 7-26 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-2 | 3-10 |
| Away | 8-7 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 61.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#183) | -17.2 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#152) | -2.48 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#155) | -3.07 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#154) | 0.420 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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