Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | APP +125 TROY -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +13 | 103 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -2.3 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (-29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -1.7 (+14.7) | 133.9 (-30.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -2.3 (+15.3) | 134.2 (-31.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -2.7 (+15.7) | 133.6 (-30.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -2.5 (+15.5) | 134.6 (-31.6) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | APP 66 – 44 TROY |
| Jan 2, 2025 | TROY 69 – 61 APP |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TROY 66 – 62 APP |
| Feb 17, 2022 | TROY 67 – 61 APP |
| Jan 8, 2022 | TROY 68 – 53 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#201) | 4.8 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#221) | 0.69 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#211) | 1.07 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#201) | 0.538 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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