Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | APP +120 TROY -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -3.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -2.6 (-5.4) | 130.3 (-0.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -2.9 (-5.1) | 130.5 (-0.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -3.0 (-5.0) | 131.3 (-1.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -3.2 (-4.8) | 130.6 (-0.6) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | APP 66 – 44 TROY |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TROY 66 – 62 APP |
| Jan 14, 2023 | APP 58 – 45 TROY |
| Feb 17, 2022 | TROY 67 – 61 APP |
| Jan 8, 2022 | TROY 68 – 53 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#228) | 3.9 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#232) | 0.44 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#245) | 0.55 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#222) | 0.521 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.