Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +15 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -3.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -1.4 (+13.6) | 132.7 (-11.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -3.6 (+11.4) | 131.1 (-10.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -3.7 (+11.3) | 131.1 (-10.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -2.9 (+12.1) | 131.8 (-10.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | APP 66 – 44 TROY |
| Jan 2, 2025 | TROY 69 – 61 APP |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TROY 66 – 62 APP |
| Jan 14, 2023 | APP 58 – 45 TROY |
| Feb 17, 2022 | TROY 67 – 61 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#202) | -0.9 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#146) | 0.20 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#127) | 0.41 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#189) | 0.523 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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